About

Ahha (Alder Hey Hospital Admissions)

The ahha model predicts hospital emergency admissions in medical and surgical categories. This has been developed by a team from Lancaster University's Faculty of Health and Medicine:

Web Pages

Overview Page

This shows a graph and table for each of medical and surgical admissions

The graph shows the most recent admission counts in red and the model estimates in black. The grey envelope shows the 50%, 95% and 99% prediction confidence intervals for four weeks ahead.

The table shows the date, forecast best estimate and the 50% prediction confidence interval for the next six days.

Graph Details

This page shows the ahha model output alongside the actual admissions counts, the hospital model and the TCI values.

Individual parts of the chart can be toggled with the checkboxes. The value of the ahha model can be read off the graph via the green cursor line. The buttons at the bottom can be used to change the timespan of the graph. Users can also zoom in by dragging with the mouse on the graph.

Table Details

This page tabulates the model and the TCI values.

For each day, the best model estimate and the 50, 95, and 99% prediction confidence intervals are given. The TCI values appear in the last column, except when they are zero.

Print Pages

The printed versions of the web pages are designed as summaries for printouts. Hence they don't contain menus and other content that doesn't make sense on paper.

Data Download

The download button on the top of the overview page returns an Excel spreadsheet of the estimates and confidence intervals of the current model predictions, as seen on the details page.