Peter Neal's Publications

Ball, F.G. and Neal, P.J. (2002) A general model for
stochastic SIR epidemics with two levels of mixing. Math.
Biosci. 180 , 73102.
 Neal, P.J. (2003) SIR epidemics on a Bernoulli random graph.
J. Appl.Prob. 40 , 779782.
 Ball, F.G. and Neal, P.J. (2003) The great circle epidemic
model. Stoch. Proc. Appl. 107 , 233268.
 Ball, F.G. and Neal, P.J. (2004) Poisson approximations for
epidemics with two levels of mixing. Ann. Prob. 32 ,
11681200.
 Neal, P.J. and Roberts, G.O. (2004) Statistical inference and model
selection for Hagelloch data set. Biostatistics 5 ,
249261.
 Neal, P.J. (2005) Compound Poisson limits for household epidemics.
J. Appl. Prob. 42 , 334345.
 Neal, P.J. and Roberts, G.O. (2005) A case study in
noncentering for data augmentation: Stochastic epidemics.
Stats. and Computing. 15 , 315327.
 Neal, P.J. and Roberts, G.O. (2006) Optimal Scaling for partially
updating MCMC algorithms.
Ann. Appl. Prob. 16 , 475515.
 Neal, P.J. (2006a) Multitype randomised ReedFrost epidemics
and epidemics upon random graphs. Ann. Appl. Prob. 16 , 11661189.
 Neal, P.J. (2006b) Stochastic and deterministic analysis of SIS household
epidemics. Adv. Appl. Prob. 38 , 943968.

Neal, P.J. and Subba Rao, T. (2007) MCMC for integer valued
ARMA processes. J. Time
Series. Anal. 28 92110.
 Neal, P.J. (2007) Coupling of two SIR epidemic models with variable susceptibility and infectivity. J. Appl. Prob. 44 , 4157.
 Ball, F.G. and Neal, P.J. (2008) Network epidemic models with two levels of mixing. Math.
Biosci. 212 , 6987.
 Neal, P.J. and Roberts, G.O. (2008) Optimal Scaling for Random Walk Metropolis
on spherically constrained target densities.
Methodology and Computing in Applied Probability. 10 277297.
 Neal P.J. (2008) The SIS Great Circle Epidemic model. J. Appl. Prob. 45 , 513530.
 Neal, P.J. (2008) The generalized Coupon collector problem. J. Appl. Prob. 45 , 621629.
 EncisoMora, V., Neal, P.J. and Subba Rao, T. (2009)
Efficient order
selection algorithms for integer valued ARMA processes. J. Time
Series. Anal. 30 118.
 Jewell, C.P., Kypraios, T., Neal, P.J. and Roberts, G.O. (2009) Bayesian Analysis for Emerging Infectious Diseases.
Bayesian Analysis 4 , 465496.
 EncisoMora, V., Neal, P.J. and Subba Rao, T. (2009)
Integer valued AR processes with explanatory variables. Sankhya, Ser. B. 71 , 248263
 Ball, F. and Neal, P. (2010) Applications of branching processes to the final
size of SIR epidemics. Proceedings of the "Workshop on Branching Processes and Their Applications". pp. 209225.
 Britton, T. and Neal, P. (2010) The time to extinction for an SIShouseholdepidemic model. J. Math. Biol. 61 , 763779
 Neal, P.J. and Roberts, G.O. (2011) Optimal Scaling of random walk Metropolis algorithms with nonGaussian
proposals.
Methodology and Computing in Applied Probability. 13 583601.
 Neal, P. (2012) The probability of extinction of a dynamic epidemic model. Math.
Biosci. 236 , 231235
 Neal, P.J., Roberts, G.O. and Yuen, W.K. (2012) Optimal Scaling of Random Walk Metropolisalgorithms with discontinuous target densities.
Annals of Applied Probability. 22 , 18801927
 Neal, P.J. (2012) Efficient likelihoodfree Bayesian Computation for household epidemics. Stats. and Computing. 22 , 12391256
 Wei, Y., Neal, P., Telfer, S. and Begon,M. (2012) Statistical analysis of an endemic disease from a capturerecapture experiment. J. Appl. Stat. 39 , 27592773
 Haegeman, B., Hamelin, J., Moriarty, J., Neal, P.,
Dushoff, J. and Weitz, J.S.(2013) Robust estimation of microbial
diversity in theory and in practice.
ISME 7 , 10921101
 Neal, P. (2014) Endemic behaviour of SIS epidemics with general infectious period
distributions. Adv. Appl. Prob. 46 , 241255.
 Xiang, F. and Neal, P. (2014)
Efficient MCMC for temporal epidemics via parameter reduction. Comp. Stat. and Data Anal. 80 , 240250.
 Neal, P. and Kypraios, T. (2015) Exact Bayesian inference via data augmentation. Stats. and Computing 25 333347
 Neal, P. and Huang, C.L.T. (2015) Forward Simulation MCMC with applications to stochastic epidemic models. Scan. J. Statist. 42 378396.
 Ball, F.G., Britton, T. and Neal, P. (2016)
On expected durations of birthdeath processes, with applications to branching
processes and SIS epidemics. J. Appl. Prob. 53 203215.
 Neal, P. (2016)
A household SIR epidemic model incorporating time of day effects. J. Appl. Prob. 53 489501.
 Neal, P. and Xiang, F. (2017)
Collapsing of noncentered parameterised MCMC algorithms with applications to epidemic models. Scan. J. Statist. 44 8196.
 Kypraios, T., Neal, P. and Prangle, D. (2017)
A tutorial introduction to Bayesian inference for
stochastic epidemic models using Approximate Bayesian Computation Math Biosci. 287 4253.
 Ball, F. and Neal, P. (2017)
The asymptotic variance of the giant component of configuration model random graphs. Annals of Applied Probability. 27 10571092.

Lee, C. and Neal, P. (2018)
Optimal scaling of the independence sampler: Theory and Practice. Bernoulli. 24 16361652.

Alzahrani, N., Neal, P., Spencer, S., McKinley, T.J. and Touloupou, P. (2018)
Model selection for time series of count data. Computational Statistics and Data Analysis. 122 3344
 Touloupou, P., Alzahrani, N., Neal, P., Spencer, S. and McKinley, T.J. (2017)
Efficient model comparison techniques for models requiring large scale data augmentation. To appear in Bayesian Analysis.
 Ludkin, M., Neal, P. and Eckley, I. (2017)
Dynamic stochastic block models: Parameter estimation and detection of changes in community structure. To appear in Statistics and Computing.
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