Publications and research

Note: most of the .pdfs here are from some late version of the paper and are not finalised versions. They contain most of the content of the finished article, but for definitive versions the journal should be consulted. Also if your browser has a linked .pdf reader and the file is not visible when loading straight from this page download the file to some local directory and open it from there. I don't know why this should be so, but sometimes a proper download works better.


Mainwaring, M. Lucy, D, & Hartley, I. (2011) Parentally biased favouritism in relation to offspring sex in zebra finches. Behavoral Ecology & Sociobiolbiology: 65; 2261–2268. Download PDF
Lucy, D. & Zadora, G. (2011) Mixed effects modelling for glass category estimation from glass refractive indicies. Forensic Science International: 212; 189-197. Download PDF
Lucy, D. (2010) The presentation of results and statistics for legal purposes. In: Black, S. Aggrawal, A. & Payne-James, J. Age Estimation in the living, Wiley-Blackwell. Download PDF
Farmer, N. Curran, J. Lucy, D. Nic-Daeid, N. & Meier-Augenstein, W. (2009) Stable isotope profiling of burnt wooden safety matches. Science & Justice: 49; 107-114.
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Farmer, N. Meier-Augenstein, W. & Lucy, D. (2009) Stable isotope analysis of white paints and likelihood ratios. Science & Justice: 49; 114-120.
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Lucy, D. Robertson, I. Aykroyd, R.G. & Pollard, A.M. (2008) Estimates of uncertainty in the prediction of past climatic variables. Applied Geochemistry: 23; 2961-2965.
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Lucy, D. Curran, J.M. Pirie, A.A. & Gill, P. (2007) The probability of achieving full allelic representation for LCN-STR profiling of haploid cells. Science & Justice: 47; 168-171. Download PDF
Aitken, C.G.G. Zadora, G. & Lucy, D. (2007) A Two-Level Model for Evidence Evaluation. Journal of Forensic Sciences: 52(2); 412-419. Download PDF
Lucy, D. (2006) Commentary on Meester et al. "On the (ab)use of statistics in the legal case against nurse Lucia de B.'' Law, Probability, & Risk: 5(3-4); 251-254. Download PDF
Martin, N.C. Pirie, A.A. Ford, L.V. Callaghan, C.L. McTurk, K. Lucy, D. & Scrimger, D.G. (2006) The use of phosphate buffered saline for the recovery of cells and spermatozoa from swabs. Science & Justice: 46(3); 179-184. Download PDF
Aitken, C.G.G. Lucy, D. Zadora, G. & Curran, J.M. (2006) Evaluation of trace evidence for three-level multivariate data with the use of graphical models. Computational Statistics and Data Analysis: 50; 2571-2588. Download PDF
Lucy, D. (2005) Introduction to Statistics for Forensic Scientists. John Wiley & Sons Ltd. More Information
Rose, P.J. Lucy, D. & Osanai, T. (2004) Linguistic-acoustic forensic speaker identification with likelihood ratios from a multivariate hiearchical random effects model: a "non-idiot's Bayes" approach. p.492-497. In Cassidy.S. (ed): Proceedings of the 10th Australian International Conference on Speech Science and Technology. Australian Speech Science and Technology Association. Download PDF
Aitken, C.G.G. & Lucy, D. (2004) Evaluation of trace evidence in the form of multivariate data. Applied Statistics: 53(1); 109-122. Download PDF
Lucy, D. & Aitken, C.G.G. (2002) A review of role of roster data and evidence of attendance in cases of suspected excess deaths in a medical context. Law, Probability and Risk:1, 141-160. Download PDF
Aitken, C.G.G & Lucy, D. (2002) Estimation of the quantity of a drug in a consignment from measurements on a sample. Journal of Forensic Sciences: 47(5); 968-975. Download PDF
Lucy, D. Aykroyd, R.G. & Pollard, A.M. (2002) Nonparametric calibration for age estimation. Applied Statistics: 51(2); 183-196. Download PDF
Aykroyd, R.G. Lucy, D. Pollard, A.M. Carter, A.H.C. & Robertson, I. (2001) Temporal variability in the strength of proxy-climate correlations. Geophysical Research Letters: 28 (8); 1559-1562. Download PDF
Robertson, I. Lucy, D. Baxter, L. Pollard, A.M. Aykroyd, R.G. Barker, A.C. Carter, A.H.C. Switsur, V.R. & Waterhouse, J.S. (1999) A kernel-based Bayesian approach to climatic reconstruction. The Holocene: 9(4); 525-530. Download PDF
Aykroyd, R.G. Lucy, D. Pollard & A.M. Roberts, C.A. (1999) Nasty, brutish, but not necessarily short: a reconsideration of the statistical methods used to calculate age at death from adult human skeletal and dental indicators. American Antiquity: 64(1); 55-70. Download PDF
Lucy, D. & Pollard, A.M.P. (1997) Chemical study of degraded dentine by resolution enhanced infra-red spectroscopy. Proceedings of the Conference on the Application of Scientific Techniques to the Study of Archaeology, Liverpool, July 1995. Oxbow. Eds: Sinclair, A. Slater, E. & Gowlett, J.; p. 357-362. Oxford. Download PDF
Kirchner, M.T. Edwards, H.G.M. Lucy & D. Pollard, A.M. (1997) Ancient and modern specimens of human teeth: a fourier transform Raman spectroscopic study. Journal of Raman Spectroscopy: 28; 171-178. No PDF
Aykroyd, R.G. Lucy, D. Pollard & A.M Solheim, T. (1997) Technical note: Regression analysis in adult age estimation. American Journal of Physical Anthropology. 104(2); 259-265. Download PDF
Carolan, V.A. Gardner, M.L.G. Lucy, D. & Pollard, A.M. (1997) Consideration of age estimation errors in the use of amino acid racemization in human dentine as an indicator of age at death. Journal of Forensic Sciences. 42(1); 10-16. Download PDF
Knusel, C.J. Goggel, S.C. & Lucy, D. (1997) Comparative degenerative joint disease of the vertebral column in the medieval monastic cemetery of the Gilbertine priory of St. Andrew, Fishergate, York, England. American Journal of Physical Anthropology. 103; 481-495. No PDF
Lucy, D. Aykroyd, R.G. Pollard, A.M. & Solheim, T. (1996) A Bayesian approach to adult human age estimation from dental observations by Johanson's age changes. Journal of Forensic Sciences. 41(2); 189-194. Download PDF
Dye, T.J. Lucy, D. & Pollard, A.M. (1995) The occurrence and implications of post-mortem pink teeth in forensic and archaeological cases. International Journal of Osteoarchaeology. 5; 339-348. Download PDF
Lucy, D. & Pollard, A.M. (1995) Further comments on the estimation of error associated with the Gustafson dental age estimation method. Journal of Forensic Sciences. 40(2); 222-227. Download PDF
Lucy, D. Pollard A.M. & Roberts, C.A. (1995) A comparison of three dental techniques for estimating age at death in humans. Journal of Archaeological Science. 22; 417-428. Download PDF
Roberts, C. Lucy, D. & Manchester, K. (1994) Inflammatory lesions of ribs: an analysis of the Terry collection. American Journal of Physical Anthropology. 95; 169-182. No PDF

Other published bits


Expressing evaluative opinions: a position statement. (2011) Science & Justice: 51; 1-2. Download PDF
Lucy, D. (2008) Review of Redmayne, M. Expert Evidence and Criminal Justice. For: Law, Probability & Risk: 7; 75-79. Download PDF
Lucy, D. (2006) Review of Agresti, A. & Franklin, C. Statistics: the art and science of learning from data. For:Times Higher Book Reviews: November 2006. Download PDF
Lucy, D. (2006) The statistical evaluation of controlled substance traces on banknotes. A poster presented at the Conference of the Royal Statistical Society, 10th-14th September 2006, Queens University Belfast. Download PDF
Lucy, D. (2004) Review of Franklin, J. The Science of Conjecture: evidence and probability before Pascal. For: Law, Probability & Risk: 3(1);87-92. Download PDF
Lucy, D. (2002) Review of Meyerson, M. Political Numeracy: Mathematical Perspectives on Our Chaotic Constitution. For: Law, Probability & Risk: 1; 185-187. Download PDF
Lucy, D. (2002) Financial statistics at Edinburgh. Local group review. RSS News: 27(5); 21. Download PDF
Lucy, D. Aykroyd, R.G. & Pollard, A.M. (2001) Commentary on Munoz JI, Suarez-Penaranda JM, Otero XL, Rodriguez-Calvo MS, Costas E, Miguens X & Concheiro L. A new perspective in the estimation of postmortem interval (PMI) based on vitreous [K+]. Journal of Forensic Sciences 2001: 46(2); 209-214. Journal of Forensic Sciences: 46(6); 1527. Download PDF
Aykroyd, R.G. Lucy, D. & Pollard, A.M. (1996) Statistical methods for the estimation of human age at death. Third International Conference on Forensic Statistics. 30th June to the 3rd July 1996. University of Edinburgh - Internal report. No PDF
Roberts, C. Pollard, A.M. & Lucy, D. (1996) Forensic anthropology 1: the contribution of biological anthropology to forensic contexts. In: Studies in crime: an introduction to forensic archaeology, B.T. Batsford Ltd. Eds. Hunter, J. Roberts & C.A. Martin, A. No PDF

Unpublished work


The .pdfs here are unpublished work which is unlikely to be published in the near future. They are here for peoples interest, or in case someone wishes to pursue the ideas in them. They are copyright and not for people to plagiarize. Citation details are in the documents.

Lucy, D. (2001) Method for non-parametric discrimination in dietary analysis. unpublished. Download PDF
Lucy, D. & Ortner, D. (2001) Immune response modeling. unpublished. Download PDF
Lucy, D. Aykroyd, R.G. Pollard, A.M. & Robertson (1999) Estimates of uncertainty in the prediction of past climatic variables. unpublished. Download PDF
Lucy, D. (1996) Human Age Estimation from Skeletal and Dental Evidence. Ph.D. Thesis: October 1996, Department of Archaeological Sciences, University of Bradford. unpublished. Download PDF
Lucy, D. (1993) Teeth, Age at Death, and Archaeology. BS.c. Dissertation: June 1993, Department of Archaeological Sciences, University of Bradford. unpublished. (no figures due to unspeakable Microsoft formats). Download PDF