Prof Paul Fearnhead
This table contains the rankings for the 2009/10 season. These are based on regular season results, and compare each teams win-loss record with a benchmark expected number of wins for their schedule (which we call their strength of schedule). Rankings are based on the difference in win percentage and expected win percentage.
Teams which won their respective conference championship are marked, and the ranking numbers ignore conference champions. Thus this approach suggests teams ranked 1 through 34 should have been selected for the national championship. For comparison with the actual selection, the actual seeding of the 65 teams in the 2009 championship are given.
There is uncertainty with the estimate of the strength of schedule for each team, quantified by a margin of error. All teams whose win-loss record is within the margin of error of their strength of schedule should be considered as borderline for the championship.
Click on the first 200 teams to see their schedule, and a breakdown of the strength of schedule in terms of expected wins (probability of winning) per game.
Margin of error: 0.7 wins.
| Rank | Team | W-L | SOS | Seed |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| * | Kansas | 32-2 | 20.3 | 1 |
| * | Duke | 29-5 | 19.5 | 1 |
| * | Kentucky | 32-2 | 23 | 1 |
| * | West Virginia | 27-6 | 18.5 | 2 |
| 1 | Syracuse | 27-4 | 19.1 | 1 |
| 2 | Purdue | 26-5 | 18.9 | 4 |
| 3 | Kansas State | 25-7 | 18.2 | 2 |
| 4 | Baylor | 24-7 | 18.2 | 3 |
| 5 | Villanova | 24-7 | 18.2 | 2 |
| * | Ohio State | 27-7 | 20.8 | 2 |
| 6 | Texas A&M | 22-9 | 17.3 | 5 |
| * | Temple | 29-5 | 23.9 | 5 |
| 7 | Wisconsin | 23-8 | 18.7 | 4 |
| 8 | Maryland | 22-8 | 17.9 | 4 |
| 9 | New Mexico | 29-4 | 24.5 | 3 |
| 10 | Georgetown | 23-10 | 18.5 | 3 |
| 11 | Michigan State | 24-8 | 19.9 | 5 |
| * | Butler | 28-4 | 24 | 5 |
| 12 | Tennessee | 25-8 | 21 | 6 |
| 13 | Pittsburgh | 24-8 | 20.2 | 3 |
| 14 | Texas | 24-9 | 20.2 | 8 |
| 15 | Florida State | 22-9 | 18.5 | 9 |
| 16 | Brigham Young | 28-5 | 24.3 | 7 |
| 17 | Vanderbilt | 23-8 | 19.6 | 4 |
| 18 | Virginia Tech | 23-8 | 19.9 | |
| * | Northern Iowa | 28-4 | 25.2 | 9 |
| 19 | Gonzaga | 25-6 | 22.5 | 8 |
| 20 | Marquette | 22-11 | 19.7 | 6 |
| 21 | Xavier | 24-8 | 21.8 | 6 |
| 22 | UTEP | 26-6 | 23.8 | 12 |
| 23 | Richmond | 26-8 | 23.8 | 7 |
| 24 | Clemson | 21-10 | 19 | 7 |
| 25 | Georgia Tech | 21-12 | 19 | 10 |
| 26 | Wake Forest | 19-10 | 17.2 | 9 |
| 27 | Oklahoma State | 22-10 | 20 | 7 |
| 28 | Missouri | 22-10 | 20.3 | 10 |
| * | Saint Mary's | 25-5 | 23.5 | 10 |
| * | Cornell | 25-4 | 23.6 | 12 |
| 29 | California | 23-10 | 21.5 | 8 |
| * | San Diego State | 23-8 | 21.9 | 11 |
| 30 | UNLV | 24-8 | 22.9 | 8 |
| * | Washington | 24-9 | 23 | 11 |
| 31 | Notre Dame | 23-11 | 22.2 | 6 |
| 32 | Mississippi | 21-10 | 20.6 | |
| 33 | Florida | 21-12 | 20.8 | 10 |
| * | Old Dominion | 26-8 | 25.9 | 11 |
| 34 | Louisville | 20-12 | 19.9 | 9 |
| 35 | Minnesota | 21-13 | 21 | 11 |
| 36 | Mississippi Stat | 23-11 | 23 | |
| * | Siena | 27-6 | 27 | 13 |
| 37 | Arizona State | 22-10 | 22.2 | |
| 38 | UAB | 23-8 | 23.2 | |
| 39 | Illinois | 18-14 | 18.3 | |
| 40 | Seton Hall | 19-12 | 19.5 | |
| 41 | Utah State | 26-7 | 26.5 | 12 |
| * | Murray State | 28-4 | 28.5 | 13 |
| 42 | Rhode Island | 23-9 | 23.6 | |
| 43 | South Florida | 20-12 | 20.7 | |
| 44 | Memphis | 23-9 | 24 | |
| 45 | Miami (FL) | 19-13 | 20.1 | |
| 46 | Cincinnati | 18-15 | 19.2 | |
| 47 | Northwestern | 20-13 | 21.5 | |
| 48 | North Carolina S | 19-15 | 20.6 | |
| 49 | Wichita State | 24-9 | 25.7 | |
| * | Oakland | 24-8 | 25.7 | 14 |
| 50 | North Carolina | 16-16 | 17.8 | |
| 51 | Tulsa | 22-11 | 23.9 | |
| 52 | Texas Tech | 17-15 | 18.9 | |
| 53 | Connecticut | 17-15 | 19 | |
| 54 | St. John's | 17-15 | 19 | |
| 55 | William & Mary | 21-10 | 23 | |
| 56 | Marshall | 20-9 | 22 | |
| 57 | Dayton | 20-12 | 22.5 | |
| * | New Mexico State | 21-11 | 23.6 | 12 |
| * | Wofford | 25-8 | 27.8 | 13 |
| 58 | Louisiana Tech | 23-10 | 25.9 | |
| 59 | Charlotte | 19-12 | 21.8 | |
| 60 | Kent State | 22-9 | 25 | |
| 61 | Harvard | 20-7 | 22.7 | |
| 62 | Portland | 19-10 | 21.9 | |
| 63 | Virginia Commonw | 22-9 | 25.1 | |
| * | Sam Houston Stat | 21-7 | 24.2 | 14 |
| 64 | Arizona | 16-15 | 19.6 | |
| 65 | Alabama | 17-15 | 20.8 | |
| 66 | Virginia | 15-16 | 18.7 | |
| 67 | Saint Louis | 19-11 | 22.6 | |
| 68 | Iowa State | 15-17 | 18.9 | |
| 69 | Boston College | 15-16 | 18.7 | |
| 70 | USC | 16-14 | 19.6 | |
| * | Morgan State | 27-9 | 31.4 | 15 |
| 71 | Illinois State | 22-10 | 25.9 | |
| 72 | Northern Colorad | 23-7 | 26.8 | |
| 73 | South Carolina | 15-16 | 19 | |
| 74 | Michigan | 14-17 | 18.1 | |
| 75 | Nevada | 19-12 | 23.2 | |
| 76 | Iona | 21-10 | 25.2 | |
| 77 | Akron | 23-10 | 27.6 | |
| 78 | Coastal Carolina | 24-6 | 28.2 | |
| 79 | Fairfield | 22-10 | 26.5 | |
| 80 | Nebraska | 15-18 | 19.8 | |
| 81 | Colorado | 13-16 | 17.2 | |
| 82 | Northeastern | 20-12 | 24.8 | |
| * | North Texas | 22-8 | 26.5 | 15 |
| 83 | Georgia | 14-17 | 18.8 | |
| 84 | Wright State | 20-12 | 25.1 | |
| 85 | IUPUI | 22-10 | 27.2 | |
| * | UC Santa Barbara | 19-9 | 23.6 | 15 |
| * | Montana | 20-9 | 24.8 | 14 |
| 86 | Princeton | 19-8 | 23.5 | |
| 87 | Weber State | 18-10 | 22.7 | |
| * | Vermont | 25-9 | 30.7 | 16 |
| 88 | Morehead State | 21-10 | 26.3 | |
| 89 | Oklahoma | 13-18 | 18.3 | |
| 90 | Missouri State | 20-12 | 25.5 | |
| 91 | Southern Miss | 16-13 | 21.3 | |
| 92 | Oregon | 16-16 | 22 | |
| 93 | Rutgers | 14-17 | 19.8 | |
| 94 | Charleston | 21-11 | 27.1 | |
| 95 | Washington State | 15-15 | 20.9 | |
| * | Houston | 18-15 | 24.6 | 13 |
| 96 | Pacific | 20-11 | 26.2 | |
| 97 | Western Carolina | 19-11 | 25.1 | |
| 98 | Green Bay | 19-12 | 25.3 | |
| * | Robert Morris | 23-11 | 30 | 15 |
| 99 | Stony Brook | 21-9 | 27.2 | |
| 100 | UCLA | 14-18 | 20.7 | |
| 101 | Appalachian Stat | 20-11 | 26.6 | |
| 102 | Providence | 12-19 | 18.6 | |
| 103 | South Dakota | 18-9 | 23.8 | |
| 104 | Stephen F. Austi | 19-9 | 25 | |
| 105 | Bradley | 16-15 | 22.8 | |
| 106 | Quinnipiac | 23-9 | 30 | |
| 107 | Stanford | 14-18 | 21 | |
| 108 | Duquesne | 15-15 | 21.8 | |
| 109 | Auburn | 14-17 | 21 | |
| 110 | Oral Roberts | 19-13 | 26.3 | |
| 111 | Colorado State | 15-15 | 21.9 | |
| 112 | Western Kentucky | 21-13 | 28.8 | |
| 113 | George Washingto | 16-14 | 23.1 | |
| 114 | Jacksonville | 19-12 | 26.3 | |
| * | Lehigh | 22-10 | 29.6 | 16 |
| 115 | Creighton | 16-15 | 23.3 | |
| 116 | Milwaukee | 17-14 | 24.4 | |
| 117 | Oregon State | 14-17 | 21.4 | |
| 118 | Hofstra | 18-14 | 25.7 | |
| 119 | Belmont | 19-12 | 26.5 | |
| 120 | Detroit | 19-14 | 27 | |
| 121 | Arkansas | 14-18 | 21.8 | |
| 122 | Boston Universit | 19-13 | 26.8 | |
| * | Ohio | 20-14 | 28.3 | 14 |
| 123 | Troy | 17-12 | 24.1 | |
| 124 | George Mason | 17-14 | 24.6 | |
| 125 | Penn State | 11-20 | 18.7 | |
| 126 | Indiana State | 16-14 | 23.5 | |
| 127 | Long Beach State | 15-16 | 22.9 | |
| 128 | Utah | 14-17 | 21.9 | |
| 129 | Maine | 18-10 | 25.2 | |
| 130 | Buffalo | 17-12 | 24.5 | |
| 131 | Loyola Marymount | 17-15 | 25.3 | |
| 132 | Eastern Kentucky | 18-12 | 25.8 | |
| * | East Tennessee S | 19-14 | 27.7 | 16 |
| * | Arkansas-Pine Bl | 17-15 | 25.5 | 16 |
| 133 | St. Bonaventure | 14-16 | 22.1 | |
| 134 | Jackson State | 18-12 | 26.2 | |
| 135 | UCF | 14-17 | 22.5 | |
| 136 | Drexel | 16-16 | 24.8 | |
| 137 | Indiana | 10-21 | 18.6 | |
| 138 | Radford | 17-12 | 25.1 | |
| 139 | Rider | 17-16 | 26.3 | |
| 140 | Middle Tennessee | 17-13 | 25.5 | |
| 141 | Texas-San Antoni | 16-11 | 23.7 | |
| 142 | Seattle | 17-14 | 26 | |
| 143 | Niagara | 18-15 | 27.7 | |
| 144 | Iowa | 10-22 | 19.4 | |
| 145 | Eastern Illinois | 17-12 | 25.6 | |
| 146 | Campbell | 17-11 | 25.3 | |
| 147 | Cleveland State | 14-17 | 23.2 | |
| 148 | Denver | 19-13 | 28.6 | |
| 149 | Western Michigan | 17-15 | 26.6 | |
| 150 | Austin Peay | 15-15 | 24 | |
| 151 | LSU | 11-20 | 20.4 | |
| 152 | Southern Illinoi | 14-15 | 22.9 | |
| * | Winthrop | 17-13 | 26.2 | 16 |
| 153 | TCU | 11-19 | 20.6 | |
| 154 | Miami (OH) | 14-18 | 24.2 | |
| 155 | Lipscomb | 14-13 | 22.6 | |
| 156 | St. Peter's | 16-14 | 25.7 | |
| 157 | Texas A&M-CC | 14-15 | 23.5 | |
| 158 | La Salle | 12-18 | 21.8 | |
| 159 | Southeastern Lou | 15-12 | 23.9 | |
| 160 | Lafayette | 19-13 | 29.6 | |
| 161 | Saint Joseph's | 11-20 | 21.4 | |
| 162 | Massachusetts | 11-20 | 21.4 | |
| 163 | Mount St. Mary's | 16-15 | 26.5 | |
| 164 | Delaware State | 14-12 | 22.9 | |
| 165 | Idaho | 13-16 | 22.9 | |
| 166 | Ball State | 14-15 | 24 | |
| 167 | Southern Methodi | 12-17 | 22 | |
| 168 | Davidson | 14-15 | 24.1 | |
| 169 | Arkansas State | 15-14 | 25.1 | |
| 170 | DePaul | 8-23 | 18.9 | |
| 171 | Central Michigan | 14-15 | 24.2 | |
| 172 | Eastern Michigan | 15-15 | 25.6 | |
| 173 | Northern Arizona | 12-14 | 21.2 | |
| 174 | Boise State | 14-17 | 25.1 | |
| 175 | San Jose State | 13-17 | 23.7 | |
| 176 | Valparaiso | 12-17 | 22.4 | |
| 177 | Bowling Green | 13-16 | 23.5 | |
| 178 | Fresno State | 14-18 | 25.6 | |
| 179 | Drake | 14-19 | 26 | |
| 180 | Montana State | 13-14 | 22.8 | |
| 181 | South Alabama | 15-15 | 25.9 | |
| 182 | Citadel | 14-16 | 24.9 | |
| 183 | IPFW | 14-15 | 24.6 | |
| 184 | Mercer | 14-17 | 25.4 | |
| 185 | San Francisco | 10-18 | 20.4 | |
| 186 | South Carolina S | 15-14 | 26 | |
| 187 | Canisius | 15-17 | 27.2 | |
| 188 | Cal State Fuller | 13-15 | 23.7 | |
| 189 | Loyola (IL) | 11-16 | 21.4 | |
| 190 | Tennessee Tech | 13-17 | 24.6 | |
| 191 | Texas Southern | 15-16 | 27.5 | |
| 192 | James Madison | 13-20 | 26.4 | |
| 193 | Florida Atlantic | 12-16 | 23.4 | |
| 194 | Texas-Arlington | 12-14 | 22.7 | |
| 195 | Loyola (MD) | 13-17 | 25.4 | |
| 196 | Bethune-Cookman | 14-16 | 26.4 | |
| 197 | North Florida | 12-18 | 24.6 | |
| 198 | Prairie View A&M | 12-14 | 23 | |
| 199 | South Dakota Sta | 12-16 | 23.9 | |
| 200 | Portland State | 11-19 | 23.9 | |
| 201 | Sacred Heart | 14-15 | 26.5 | |
| 202 | Chattanooga | 13-18 | 26.4 | |
| 203 | Alabama State | 13-15 | 25.1 | |
| 204 | North Carolina-A | 12-16 | 24.2 | |
| 205 | Texas State | 11-16 | 22.8 | |
| 206 | San Diego | 10-21 | 23.5 | |
| 207 | Air Force | 8-21 | 20.7 | |
| 208 | Louisiana-Lafaye | 12-16 | 24.3 | |
| 209 | High Point | 13-15 | 25.4 | |
| 210 | Bucknell | 14-17 | 27.8 | |
| 211 | Liberty | 12-16 | 24.5 | |
| 212 | East Carolina | 7-21 | 19.5 | |
| 213 | New Hampshire | 12-17 | 25 | |
| 214 | Wyoming | 8-21 | 21.1 | |
| 215 | Georgia State | 11-20 | 25.1 | |
| 216 | Long Island | 14-17 | 28.1 | |
| 217 | Army | 13-15 | 25.7 | |
| 218 | Cal Poly | 12-19 | 26.4 | |
| 219 | Hampton | 14-18 | 29 | |
| 220 | UC Davis | 12-18 | 26.1 | |
| 221 | Manhattan | 11-20 | 25.6 | |
| 222 | UC Riverside | 10-17 | 22.8 | |
| 223 | Binghamton | 11-18 | 24.8 | |
| 224 | UC Irvine | 12-18 | 26.3 | |
| 225 | North Carolina-W | 9-22 | 23.9 | |
| 226 | Hawaii | 9-20 | 23 | |
| 227 | Columbia | 11-17 | 24.5 | |
| 228 | Furman | 11-17 | 24.5 | |
| 229 | Northern Illinoi | 10-20 | 24.5 | |
| 230 | Navy | 13-17 | 27.6 | |
| 231 | Towson | 10-21 | 25.3 | |
| 232 | Tulane | 8-22 | 22.8 | |
| 233 | Santa Clara | 9-21 | 23.9 | |
| 234 | Cal State Northr | 11-21 | 26.9 | |
| 235 | Norfolk State | 11-19 | 25.9 | |
| 236 | Yale | 11-19 | 26.1 | |
| 237 | Western Illinois | 10-17 | 23.6 | |
| 238 | Longwood | 8-18 | 21.2 | |
| 239 | Evansville | 8-21 | 22.7 | |
| 240 | Brown | 9-20 | 23.8 | |
| 241 | UMKC | 10-18 | 24.3 | |
| 242 | Lamar | 10-18 | 24.4 | |
| 243 | St. Francis (PA) | 11-19 | 26.7 | |
| 244 | Tennessee State | 9-23 | 25.7 | |
| 245 | St. Francis (NY) | 11-18 | 26.1 | |
| 246 | Winston-Salem | 8-17 | 21 | |
| 247 | Kennesaw State | 10-20 | 25.7 | |
| 248 | Louisiana-Monroe | 10-19 | 25.2 | |
| 249 | UNC Greensboro | 8-23 | 24.4 | |
| 250 | Charleston South | 9-17 | 22.8 | |
| 251 | Nicholls State | 8-18 | 21.8 | |
| 252 | Delaware | 7-24 | 23.6 | |
| 253 | American Univers | 11-20 | 27.6 | |
| 254 | Central Connecti | 12-18 | 28.1 | |
| 255 | Monmouth | 12-19 | 28.7 | |
| 256 | Jacksonville Sta | 9-19 | 24 | |
| 257 | Savannah State | 7-15 | 18.9 | |
| 258 | Illinois-Chicago | 7-22 | 22.7 | |
| 259 | Maryland-Eastern | 11-21 | 28.3 | |
| 260 | North Dakota Sta | 9-18 | 23.7 | |
| 261 | Samford | 8-20 | 23.2 | |
| 262 | Rice | 7-23 | 23.3 | |
| 263 | Colgate | 10-19 | 25.8 | |
| 264 | Fairleigh Dickin | 11-21 | 28.5 | |
| 265 | Houston Baptist | 12-21 | 30 | |
| 266 | Eastern Washingt | 7-21 | 22.8 | |
| 267 | North Carolina A | 8-22 | 25.1 | |
| 268 | Youngstown State | 6-22 | 22.1 | |
| 269 | Alabama A&M | 8-15 | 21.2 | |
| 270 | Idaho State | 5-22 | 20.5 | |
| 271 | Northwestern Sta | 7-18 | 21.5 | |
| 272 | Utah Valley | 8-18 | 23.1 | |
| 273 | Holy Cross | 9-22 | 27.1 | |
| 274 | Cal State Bakers | 7-22 | 24.1 | |
| 275 | Elon | 8-23 | 26.3 | |
| 276 | Hartford | 8-22 | 25.7 | |
| 277 | Pepperdine | 6-23 | 23.2 | |
| 278 | Florida Gulf Coa | 8-21 | 25.2 | |
| 279 | Georgia Southern | 7-23 | 25 | |
| 280 | Florida A&M | 8-22 | 26 | |
| 281 | McNeese State | 7-20 | 23.3 | |
| 282 | Sacramento State | 7-21 | 24 | |
| 283 | Mississippi Vall | 8-23 | 26.9 | |
| 284 | Pennsylvania | 6-22 | 23 | |
| 285 | Centenary | 6-21 | 22.6 | |
| 286 | USC Upstate | 6-23 | 23.8 | |
| 287 | Arkansas-Little | 6-22 | 23.4 | |
| 288 | Virginia Militar | 6-19 | 21.8 | |
| 289 | Albany | 7-25 | 27.4 | |
| 290 | Central Arkansas | 6-20 | 22.6 | |
| 291 | N.J.I.T. | 7-21 | 25 | |
| 292 | Southeast Missou | 6-23 | 24.7 | |
| 293 | FIU | 6-25 | 26 | |
| 294 | Texas-Pan Americ | 6-27 | 27.4 | |
| 295 | Stetson | 5-22 | 22.5 | |
| 296 | Gardner-Webb | 5-21 | 21.9 | |
| 297 | New Orleans | 6-22 | 24.3 | |
| 298 | Presbyterian | 4-26 | 23.7 | |
| 299 | Chicago State | 6-22 | 24.7 | |
| 300 | Fordham | 2-26 | 20.8 | |
| 301 | Southern Utah | 5-22 | 23.1 | |
| 302 | Coppin State | 5-22 | 23.1 | |
| 303 | Howard | 7-25 | 28.6 | |
| 304 | Grambling State | 6-21 | 24.4 | |
| 305 | North Dakota | 5-21 | 23 | |
| 306 | Southern Univers | 5-24 | 25.3 | |
| 307 | North Carolina C | 3-22 | 20.5 | |
| 308 | Toledo | 3-28 | 25.5 | |
| 309 | Dartmouth | 4-23 | 23.8 | |
| 310 | SIU Edwardsville | 2-14 | 13.7 | |
| 311 | Wagner | 5-26 | 28.2 | |
| 312 | Tennessee-Martin | 2-25 | 22.2 | |
| 313 | UMBC | 4-26 | 26.6 | |
| 314 | Alcorn State | 2-29 | 26.6 | |
| 315 | Marist | 1-29 | 25.8 | |
| 316 | Bryant Universit | 1-29 | 26.4 |
Rank: Rank ignoring conference champions. Conference champions denoted by *.
SOS: Strength of schedule, quantified in expected number of wins.
SHADED BACKGROUND: suggested teams for at-large bid.
RED FONT: Teams within margin of error.
BOLD UPPERCASE: Teams receiving bids.