Methodological research on Criminal Careers
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We are currently undertaking research into four major issues in criminal careers.
In general, we are concerned with the development of criminal activity throughout the life course, specifically focussing on the nature and type of activity which offenders are involved in, as well as the amount or frequency of such behaviour. We focus both on general activity (themes 1) as well as on serious offending such as kidnapping and threats to kill (theme 2). Two related issues are that of criminal career length (theme 2) and criminal career offence seriousness, which allows us to investigate escalation (theme 4).
THEME 1. Modelling patterns of longitudinal event histories – criminal pathways [Francis, Soothill, Ackerley, Liu, Humphreys] (quantitative criminology, statistical modelling)
This project focuses on the changing patterns of criminal activity through the statistical modelling of court conviction data. Unlike most recent work, this research will investigate dynamic offending typologies through the nature of the convictions rather than the number. The nature of criminal activity and the number of different types of activity will also change over time and as an offender ages, and transitions between groups are also of interest. We are interested in developing suitable statistical models to understand the developmental nature of crime and the temporal changes in such activity.
THEME 2. Modelling length of criminal career [Francis, Soothill] 
This research project is joint work with Alex Piquero at the University of Florida. We are interested in three issues - how to best estimate the length of criminal career from official criminal records. whether we can detect changes in length of career over time and across birth cohorts and whether the male-female differences in estimated length are changing for more recent cohorts.
THEME 3. Modelling patterns of serious offending [ Soothill, Liu, Francis, Ackerley] 
In this theme, we are focusing on the interrelationships between six major serious offences: arson, threats to kill, blackmail, kidnap, homicide and rape (serious sexual assault). We are specifically interested in assessing the risk and speed of homicide following a conviction of one or a combination of the first four of these offences.
THEME 4. Modelling offence seriousness [Francis, Soothill, Humphreys, Bezzina] 
This research is investigating various methods for assessing offence seriousness- that is, the seriousness level of an average offence of a particular type. We contrast several different approaches, including average length of custodial sentence and a bilinear modelling approach. This is a crucial component to enable researchers to measure degrees of escalation through the criminal lifecourse. It is also recognised that offence seriousness changes both according to location and according to time.
