Publications

New computational approaches to random effects models

Publications and submissions

1. Feddag, M-L. (2006): Contribution to the discussion of "Double hierarchical generalized linear models" by Y Lee and J A Nelder.
   Applied Statistics 55(2) 175-176.
2. Feddag, M-L. and Mesbah, M. (2006). Approximate estimation in generalized linear mixed models, with applications to Rasch models.
   Computers and Mathematics with Applications 51 269-278.
3. Firth, D. (2005) Some Topics in Social Statistics.
   In Celebrating Statistics: Papers in Honour of Sir David Cox on his 80th Birthday (eds. A.C.Davison, Y.Dodge, N.Wermuth) Oxford: OUP.
4. Firth, D. (2005) Bradley-Terry models
   Royal Journal of Statistical Software 12(1), 1-12.
5. Firth, D. (2006). Contribution to the discussion of "Double hierarchical generalized linear models" by Y Lee and J A Nelder.
   Applied Statistics 55(2) 168-170.
6. Sergeant, J.C. and Firth, D. (2006). Relative index of inequality: Definition, estimation and inference.
   Biostatistics 7, 213-224.
7. Stuart-Fox, D.M., Firth, D., Moussalli, A. and Whiting, M.J. (2006). Multiple signals in chameleon contests: designing and analysing animal contests as a tournament.
   Animal Behaviour 71, 1263-1271.
8. Turner, H. and Firth, D. (2006): "Generalized nonlinear models in R: an overview of the gnm package".
   At http://www.warwick.ac.uk/go/dfirth/software/gnm
9. Turner, H. and Firth, D. (2007). Generalized Nonlinear Models in R.
   Statistical Computing and Graphics Newsletter (American Statistical Association).
10. Whiting, M.J., Stuart-Fox, D.M., O'Connor, D., Firth, D., Bennett, N.C. and Bloomberg, S.P. (2006). Ultraviolet signals ultra-aggression in a lizard.
    Animal Behaviour 72, 353-363.
11. Feddag, M., Bacci, S. Pairwise Likelihood for the Longitudinal Mixed Rasch Model
    submitted to Computational Statistics and Data Analysis.
12. Kosmidis, Firth, D. Bias Reduction in Exponential Family Nonlinear Models.
    submitted to Biometrika
    

Papers in progress

1. Batchelor, Turner, H., Firth, D. IWSM Proceedings and CRiSM paper, currently under revision as a full paper.

UseR! 2006 conference, Vienna, Austria. June 2006.

21st International Workshop on Statistical Modelling, Galway July 2006

• Firth, D. and Turner, H. (2006) Generalized non-linear models and over-parameterized representation. In: IWSM 2006. Proceedings of the 21^st International Workshop on Statistical Modelling, Galway. eds: Hinde, J. , Einbeck, J. and Newell, J. p 190-192. ISBN 1-86220-180-3

Latent Variable Methods in the Health Sciences. Perugia, Italy. September 2006

• Feddag, M-L (with Firth, D and Varin C.) Statistical inference for the mixed Bradley-Terry model.

Biostatistics and Quality of Life, Paris, France. April 2007.

• Feddag, M-L., Bacci, S. and Firth, D. (2007) Pairwise likeligood for longitudinal mixed Rasch model.

22nd International Workshop on Statistical Modelling. Barcelona, Spain. July 2007

• Batchelor, A., Turner, H. and Firth, D. (2007). Nonlinear discrete-time hazard models for the rate of first marriage. In: Proceedings of the 22nd International Workshop on Statistical Modelling, (Eds del Castillo, J, Espinal, A, and Puig, P,) ISBN 978-84-690-5943-2. pp.99-102.

Methodological research on criminal careers

Publications and submissions

1. Francis, B and Soothill, K (2005) Explaining changing patterns of crime: a focus on burglary and age-period-cohort models.
   In Peelo, M. and Soothill, K. (eds) Questioning Crime and Criminology. Collumpton: Willan Press, p102-119.
2. Bartolucci, F. Pennoni, F. and Francis, B. (2007) A latent markov model for detecting patterns of criminal activity.
   J. Royal Statistical Society Series A. 170, 115-132
3. Francis B, Soothill K, and Piquero, A. (2007) Estimation issues and generational changes in lengths of criminal careers.
   Crime & Delinquency 53(1) 84-105.
4. Soothill, K, Ackerley, E and Francis, B. (2006) Participation in crime among children and young adults: changes over time. 
   Accepted by Criminology and Criminal Justice. .
5. Soothill, K, Francis, B, Ackerley, E. and Humphreys, L. (2007) Changing patterns of offending behaviour in young adults.
   British Journal of Criminology. 48(1), 75-95. 
6. Christoffersen, M, Soothill, K and Francis, B. (2007) Violent life events and social disadvantage: A Systematic Study of the Social Background of Various Kinds of Lethal Violence, Other Violent Crime, Suicide, and Suicide Attempts 
   Journal of Scandinavian Studies in Criminology and Crime Prevention. 8(2), 157-184.
7. Liu, J, Francis, B and Soothill, K. (2007) The risk of escalation in serious crime for kidnap offenders: A modelling approach.
   Accepted by Journal of Forensic Psychiatry and Psychology.
8. Soothill, K., Francis, B., and Ackerley, E. (2007) Kidnapping: A Criminal Profile of Persons Convicted 1979-2001.
   Behavioural Sciences and the Law  25, 69-84. 
9. Christoffersen, M, Soothill, K, and Francis, B. (2008) Risk Factors for a First time Drink-Driving Conviction among Young Males: A Birth Cohort Study of All Males Born in Denmark in 1966.
   Accepted by Journal of Substance Abuse Treatment.
10. Wood, J. and Francis, B. (2007) Public perceptions of offender dangerousness - views of young adults in the UK.
    Submitted to Journal of Experimental Criminology. Under revision.
11. Soothill,K.(2007)   Changing patterns of offending over 30 years.
    Psychiatry, 6:11(November) 455-458
12. Soothill K, Liu, J and Francis B (2007) The importance of co-convictions in predicting dangerous recidivism.
    Submitted to Journal of Criminal Justice.
13. Soothill, K., Francis, B., Liu, J. (2007) Exploring the inter-relationships between serious types of crime.
    Submitted to British Journal of Criminology. Under revision.
    
14. Soothill, K and Francis, B. (2009) Keeping the DNA link.New Law Journal, 17 July: 1021-1022.
    

Papers in progress

1. Francis, B, Soothill, K, and Ackerley, E. (2007) Threats to kill and subsequent homicide – do dogs which bark also bite?
   Early draft for submission to Journal of Interpersonal Violence
2. Francis, B. Soothill, K and Ackerley, E. (2007) The patterns of gendered criminal careers. Early draft. 
3. Soothill, K., Christoffersen, M., Hussain, M. and Francis, B. (2008)   Exploring Paradigms of Crime Reduction: an empirical longitudinal study. 
   Final draft for submission to British Journal of Criminology.

Conference proceedings and presentations

European Society of Criminology August 2005 Krakow, Poland

American Society of Criminology November 2005 Toronto, Canada

International Symposium on Forensic Sciences February 2006  Amity University, Uttar Pradesh, India

British Society of Criminology July 2006 Glasgow, UK

European Society of Criminology August 2006 Tubingen, Germany

American Society of Criminology November 2006 Los Angeles, USA 

Academy of Criminal Justice Sciences, March 2007 Seattle USA

• Soothill K, Francis B, Liu J (2007) The Importance of Co-Convictions: A Demonstration Study

Royal Statistical Society Conference, July 2007. York, UK

• Francis, B., Humphreys, L., Soothill, K. and Bezzina, A. (2006). Measuring offence seriousness through criminal records - the UK experience.

British Society of Criminology September 2007 London, UK

European Society of Criminology September 2007 Bologna, Italy

American Society of Criminology November 2007 Atlanta, USA 

Abstracts submitted:

American Society of Criminology November 2007 Atlanta, USA 

• Francis, B., Liu, J. and Soothill, K. (2008) Using the Offenders Index to investigate patterns in offending.

Research methods for changing value systems

Publications and submissions

1. Dittrich, R. Francis, B and Hatzinger, R. (2007) A paired comparison approach for the analysis of sets of likert scale responses.
   Statistical Modelling 7(1) 3-28.
2. Francis B, Dittrich, R. , Hatzinger, R. and Penn, R (2006) Modelling heterogeneity in ranked data: a mixture modelling approach.
   Submitted to Computational Statistics and Data Analysis. Under revision
3. Dittrich, R. Francis B, Hatzinger,R. Katzenbeisser, W. (2006) Modelling dependency in multivariate paied comparisons: a log-linear approach.
   Mathematical Social Sciences 52(2) 197-209
4. Penn, R., Berridge, D. (2006) Modelling Longitudinal data on Family Roles: an analysis of the British Household Panel Study between 1991 and 2006.
   In: Proceedings of the XVI World Congress of Sociology, Durban, South Africa. ISBN 023942433248.
5. Ganjali, M., Berridge, D., and Penn, R. (2006) A longitudinal transition ordered response model for analysing the change of attitudes to gender roles.
   In: IWSM 2006. Proceedings of the 21st International Workshop on Statistical Modelling, Galway. Hinde, J., Einbeck, J. and Newell, J. (eds). 193-200. ISBN 1862201803.
6. Penn, R., Soothill, K. (2007) Ethical Issues in Social Inquiry: the Enemy within?
   Qualitative Researcher. 6, 4-6.
7. Dittrich, R., Francis, B., Hatzinger, R., Katzenbeisser, W. (2007). On the treatement of missing observations in paired comparison experiments.
   In: Proceedings on the 22nd International Workshop on Statistical Modelling. Castillo, J., Espinal, A., Puig, P. (eds). 215-220. ISBN 9788469059432.  
8. Berridge, D., Ganjali, M., Penn, R. (2008) . Changing Attitudes to Gender Roles: a Longitudinal Analysis of Ordinal Response Data from the British Household Panel Study. 
   Accepted by International Sociology.
9. Penn, R., Berridge, D. (2008) Modelling Trajectories through the Educational System in North West England.
   Accepted by Education Economics.

Papers in progress

1. Liu, J., Francis, B., Penn, R. (2007). Modelling likert scales - a reappraisal of linear score methods.
2. Francis, B., Humphreys, L., Penn, R. Modelling longitudinal paired comparisons with random effects: postmaterialism in the UK.
3. Dittrich, R., Francis, B., Hatzinger, R., Katzenbeisser, W. Missing data in paired comparisons. 
4. Dittrich, R., Francis, B., Katzenbeisser, W. (2008).    Temporal Dependence in Longitudinal Paired Comparisons.

Conference proceedings and presentations

3rd World Conference on Computational Statistics and Data Analysis , Limassol, Cyprus. October 2005  

• Francis, B, Dittrich, R and Hatzinger, R. Mixture models for ranked data.

XVI World Congress of Sociology, Durban, South Africa July 2006

• Penn, R and Berridge, D. (2006) Modelling Longitudinal data on Family roles: an analysis of the British Household Panel Study between 1991 and 2006. In: Proceedings of the XVI World Congress of Sociology, Durban, South Africa. ISBN 0-23942-43324-8.

21st International Workshop on Statistical Modelling, Galway, Ireland July 2006

• Ganjali, M. Berridge, D and Penn, R. (2006) A longitudinal transition ordered response model for analysing the change of attitudes to gender roles. In: IWSM 2006. Proceedings of the 21^st International Workshop on Statistical Modelling, Galway. Eds: Hinde, J. , Einbeck, J. and Newell, J. p 193-200. ISBN 1-86220-180-3

Latent Variable Methods in the Health Sciences. Perugia, Italy. September 2006

• Francis,B. , Dittrich, R., Hatzinger, R. and Mair, P. Latent classes for preference data.

British Sociological Association, London, UK. April 2007.

• Francis, B., Humphreys, L. and Penn, R. (2007) Changes in attitudes to postmaterialism over time using longitudinal ranked data.
• Liu, J., Penn, R. and Francis, B. (2007) Models for ordinal data: can linear score methods be used?

22nd International Workshop on Statistical Modelling, Barcelona, Spain. July 2007.

• Dittrich, R, Francis, B, Hatzinger, R and Katzenbeisser, W, (2007). On the treatment of missing observations in paired comparison experiments. In: Proceedings on the 22nd International Workshop on Statistical Modelling (Eds del Castillo, J, Espinal, A, and Puig, P,) ISBN 978-84-690-5943-2. pp.215-220.

International Royal Statistical Society Conference, York, UK. July 2007.

• Francis, B., Dittrich, R., Hatzinger, R. and Katzenbeisser, W. Missing observations for preference data.

Statistical models for childhood development

Publications and submissions

1. Lewis C , Francis B. (with Ball, Cheshire, Muldoon) (2007) Modelling change: new opportunities in the analysis of microgenetic data. 
   Infant and Child Development. 16, 119-134.
2. Muldoon, K, Lewis, C , Francis, B. (2007) Using Cardinality to Compare Quantities: The Role of Social-Cognitive Conflict in Early Numeracy.
   Developmental Science 10(5) 694-711.
3. Lewis C, Berridge D ( With Muldoon) (2007) Predictors of early numeracy: Is there a place for mistakes when learning about number?
   British Journal of Developmental Psychology. 25(4), 543-558
4. Diggle, P.J, Farewell, D. and Henderson, R. (2007). Longitudinal Data without dropout: objectives, assumptions and a proposal (with discussion).
   Applied Statistics 56(5), 499-550.
5. Solis-Trapala, I, Lewis, C, Diggle, P, Shimmon, K. (2007). Modelling change in repeated sequences of binary data: The development of inhibitory control in preschool children. Submitted to Psychological Methods.
6. Solis-Trapala, I, (2007). Contribution to the discussion of the paper by Diggle, Farewell and Henderson.
   Applied Statistics. 56(5), 544.
7. Towse, J., Lewis, C., Knowles, M. (2007) When knowledge is not enough; the phenomenon of goal neglect in preschool children.
   Journal of Experimental Child Psychology. 96, 320-332.
8. Flynn, E., Pine, K., Lewis, C. (2007) Using the microgenetic method to investigate cognitive development.
   Infant and Child Development. 16, 1-6.
9. Lewis, C. (with Oh) (2008). Korean Preschoolers' Advanced Inhibitory Control and its Relation to Other Executive Skills and Mental State Understanding.
   Child Development, 79(1), 80-99.
10. Lewis, C., Carpendale, J., Towse, J., Maridaki-Kassotaki, K. (in press). Epistemic Flow and the Social Making of Minds.
    Chapter in: B. Sokol, U.Muller, J.I.M. Carpendale, A.Young, and G.Iarocci (in press) Self and Social Regulation: Exploring the Relations between Social Interation, Social Cognition, and the Development of Executive Functions. Oxford: Oxford University Press. 

Papers in progress

1. Solis-Trapala, I., Lewis, C., Diggle, P.J. (2007). Carry-over effects in test batteries of executive function: working memory tasks which become progressively more difficult.
2. Solis-Trapala, I., Diggle, P.J. (2007). Maximum likelihood inference for a mixed logistic regression model, based on maximisation by parts.
3. Lewis, C., Solis-Trapala, I., Shimmon, K., Diggle, P.J. Should we take test order effects in assessments of executive function more seriously?

Conference proceedings and presentations

Nordic Statistical Society Meeting, Copenhagen, Denmark. April 2006.

• Diggle, P.J. (2006) Joint Modelling of Longitudinal Measurements and Survival Outcomes.

ESRC Seminar "Using the Microgenetic Method to Investigate Cognitive Development" April, 2006 St Andrews

Francis B (2006) Modelling microgenetic trajectories – can we identify patterns of behaviour?

Solis-Trapala (2006) Graphical approaches in the modelling of cognitive development.

Latent Variable Methods in the Health Sciences. Perugia, Italy. September 2006

• Solis-Trapala, I., Diggle, P.J. and Lewis, C. (2006). Graphical modelling approaches in investigating cognitive development. Poster presentation [TO ADD]

British Psychological Society, Developmental Psychology Section annual conference, London, UK. September 2006.

• Lewis, C. and Muldoon, K. (2006). Any room for error in mathematics?

The Fourth Armitage Lecture, Cambridge, UK. November 2006.

• Diggle, P.J. (2006) Joint Modelling of Repeated Measurements and Time-to event Outcomes.

Society for Research in Child Development, Boston USA March 2007

• Lewis, C. and Solis-Trapala, I. (2007). Have We Underestimated the Role of Social Interaction in Executive Skills?

Meeting of the Jean Piaget Society: Developmental Social Cognitive Neuroscience, Amsterdam, The Netherlands. May 2007.

• Lewis, C., Solis-Trapala, I. and Shimmon, K. (2007) Social and cognitive processes in the testing of executive functions.

22nd International Workshop on Statistical Modelling, Barcelona, Spain July 2007

• Solis-Trapala, I., Diggle, P.J. and Lewis, C. (2007) Statistical modelling of development of executive function in early childhood. Poster presentation [ TO ADD]

International conference of the Royal Statistical Society, York, UK. July 2007

• Solis-Trapala, I., Diggle, P.J. and Lewis, C. (2007) Longitudinal models for assessing cognitive development in early childhood.

International Conference on Memory, Sydney, Australia. July 2007

• Lewis, C., Brown, D. and Lamb, M.E. (2007) The effectiveness of verbal input-free cueing techniques in forensic interviews.

International Society for the Study of Behavioural Development, Melbourne, Australia. July 2007.

• Lewis, C., Koyasu, M., Ogawa, A., Oh, S. and Short, B. (2007) Cultural, social and cognitive factors in the development of executive functions.

British Psychological Society Developmental Psychology annual conference, Plymouth, UK. August 2007.

• Lewis, C., Warburton, K. and Harrison, A. (2007). The role of communication in preschoolers executive task performance.